Oscar Predictions by Ethan Miguel Viera

Awards season is my postseason, and The Oscars is my World Series. I get so excited every year to watch the different upsets, sweeps, and curveballs that the award shows have in store. I try to follow films from their premieres at either Cannes, TIFF, or Venice all the way to the Academy Awards, predicting what will win all the way through. Although I am an actor and an avid movie watcher, I try not to let my personal opinions get in the way of my predictions. I will, however, be sharing some opinions (because I simply can't help it.) As a result, I will be leaning more heavily on past wins, trends, and precursor award shows for my predictions. A lot of these precursor shows have long names that I don’t feel like typing all the way out each time, so I am writing a little key here for my abbreviations. 

PGA = Producers Guild of America

DGA = Directors Guild of America

GG - Golden Globes

BAFTA = The British Academy Film Awards

CCA = Critics Choice Awards

AA = Actor Awards (previously known as the SAG/Screen Actors Guild)

NAACP = National Association for the Advancement of Colored People

Now let’s get on to my predictions for most of the Oscar categories!

1. Best Picture:

Prediction: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Although One Battle isn’t my personal pick, after the recent PGA win, I find it difficult to see any other film taking the crown. One Battle has won the Globe (Comedy), BAFTA, DGA, PGA, and CCA. The two films closest behind are Hamnet, winning the Globe (Drama) and Outstanding British Film at the BAFTAs, and Sinners, which recently dominated the NAACP Image Awards. Even Hamnet’s two wins at major precursors shouldn’t matter. Not to mention the narrative focus of PTA’s overdue Academy recognition, which is helping to push the Picture/Director/Adapted Screenplay package. Personally, I’d love to see Sinners win. I’m a sucker for horror, and Ryan Coogler delivered an incredible blend of genres with some absolutely beautiful use of music. On top of that, the film seemingly brought big-budget blockbuster filmmaking back into the limelight, showing studios that if they take a chance and give a talented director the control and resources they need, original and highly profitable work can be produced. I think Coogler deserved the chance a long time ago, but alas, when he finally got his due, he did not disappoint.

2. Best Director:

Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson

Similar to my reasoning in Picture, after the DGAs and BAFTAs, this is PTA’s award to lose. He has everything going for him: a nice three-way package, an overdue win narrative, and major precursor wins left and right. The only time a director has ever lost the Oscar after winning all five major precursors (PGA, DGA, CCA, GG, and BAFTA) was Ben Affleck for Argo, who shockingly wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar. So, seeing as though PTA is nominated, it is pretty safe to assume that this award is a lock. 

3. Best Actor:

Prediction: Michael B. Jordan

This is a tough category; the recent BAFTA and AA curveballs left the Best Actor race in shambles. I was incredibly confident that Timothee Chalamet would take the Oscar after his CCA and GG wins, but after losing the BAFTA and AA, I am no longer so confident. No actor since Sean Penn has won the Oscar after losing both the BAFTA and the AA, which Timothee has. But where does that leave us? Well, Wagner Moura won the GG for drama, and Michael B. Jordan won the AA. Historically, only winning either the AA or GG drama and then winning the Oscar is rare but not impossible. When it comes to recent cases, similar to Timothee’s situation, the last actor to lose all major precursors except the AA and go on to win the Oscar was Russel Crowe in 2001 for Gladiator. When it comes to Moura’s situation, Rami Malek and Eddie Redmayne lost all precursors besides the GG and still won the Oscar for Bohemian Rhapsody and The Theory of Everything, respectively. So with the addition of the Best Actor Award at Cannes, one might think that Wagner Moura has a leg up on Michael B. Jordan for a shot at the Oscar. The big issue with that is The Secret Agent does not have the momentum that Sinners does. The Secret Agent sits with a respectable 3 Oscar nominations, but Sinners broke the record for most nominations ever with 16. If we include that, along with a more likely package of Adapted Screenplay, Score, and Best Actor, rather than a lone acting win, Michael B. Jordan is a step ahead of Moura. Now, my reasoning for putting Michael B. Jordan ahead of Timothee comes down to the fact that the academy and other precursors seem to love Sinners andnot too interested in Marty Supreme. Marty Supreme went 0/11 at the BAFTAs, where Sinners went 3/13. And at the AA Marty Supreme went 0/3 and Sinners went 2/5. Although this is an incredibly tight race, I am putting my bets on Michael B. Jordan.

4. Best Actress:

Prediction: Jessie Buckley

This category, much like Best Picture, is essentially a lock. Jessie Buckley has won every major precursor, sharing only the Globe with Rose Byrne. Although there still seems to be a lot of hope for Byrne, who is undeniably in second right now, it’s hard for me to see a world where she takes the Oscar after losing the CCA, BAFTA, and AA. There’s not much more to say about this category. Buckley has been a juggernaut this season, and I can confidently say that she will continue her momentum through the Oscars. I know people have their opinions about complete sweeps when it comes to the acting categories, but I’d love to see Jessie Buckley win. Having seen Hamnet 3 times now, one could say I am quite the fan. The role of Agnes demands so much, and she absolutely delivers, giving a layered and nuanced performance of a woman going through a mother's worst nightmare. She channeled emotions that were so visceral I could feel my entire theater, each time I saw it, choking back sobs. 

5. Best Supporting Actor:

Prediction: Sean Penn

If you asked me who I thought would win this award before the BAFTA and AA, I would’ve said it was anyone's game between Penn, Elordi, and Skarsgård. But now that Sean Penn has taken both of these awards, I think he has inched ahead of his competition. What makes me hesitant about locking in Penn as my prediction is two things. First off, this would be his third Oscar. While the Academy has no problems giving actors two Oscars, there have only been three male actors who have won three Oscars: Daniel Day-Lewis, Walter Brennan, and Jack Nicholson. Although Col. Lockjaw will inevitably become an iconic character, fuelled by an iconic performance, I don’t know if the Academy wants to give Sean Penn a third Oscar, especially due to my second reason for hesitancy. Sean Penn, seemingly, does not really care about these award shows. He was not present at both the BAFTAs and the AA, and who knows if he will be at the Oscars. Regardless, part of me thinks his lack of ostensive care for the awards season will influence voters. If not Penn, then Skarsgård, but despite everything I spoke about above, I still think Penn will take this home. 

6. Best Supporting Actress:

Prediction: Amy Madigan

This award is by far the most interesting and up in the air award of the season. The three major precursors prior to the AA have been split evenly, with Amy Madigan winning the CCA, Teyanna Taylor winning the GG, and Wumni Mosaku winning the BAFTA. The issue with counting on the AA this year is that Sentimental Value was shown no love by the AA. Which is crazy because in my opinion, Sentimental Value had some of the best performances of the year in both Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas. So the pool of nominees at the AA is very different from the Oscar pool. However, I don’t think this matters too much. The problem with having two nominees in the same category is that they usually end up splitting votes, which may happen for Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn in Supporting Actor. So with two of the five nominees possibly splitting votes, where does that leave us? Well, with Amy Madigan winning the AA, I think it’s time for an incredible horror performance to get some love from the Academy and take home the Oscar. Regardless of the genre, Amy Madigan delivers an electrifying performance in Weapons and took the internet by storm when the film was released last summer. With the traction The Substance garnered last season, and the momentum Madigan has gained after this AA win, I think the Academy has finally opened their hearts some more to genre performances. It’s just a shame they missed the opportunity to recognize Toni Collette's mind-blowing performance in Hereditary. 

7. Best Original Screenplay:

Prediction: SINNERS 

After its latest BAFTA win for Screenplay, I think it is safe to assume that Sinners is locked for this award. If you asked me a few months ago where I thought this award would be, I would say that there was a world in which Jafar Panahi, with It Was Just an Accident, takes this, but after it sadly underperformed with nominations, Sinners is the clear first place. 

8. Best Adapted Screenplay:

Prediction: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

Given how confident I am in the One Battle After Another picture win, it wouldn’t make sense if this film didn’t win Adapted Screenplay. PTA has won the BAFTA for best Adapted Screenplay and the GG for best screenplay. This is shaping up to look like the perfect trifecta this year for PTA with a Picture/Director/Screenplay sweep.

9. Casting:

Prediction: SINNERS

The brand new category at the Oscars is exciting, but also one that is somewhat hard to judge due to the fact that we don’t really have any precursor awards to go off of. The only one we have is the AA Best Cast award, which Sinners won. While some are afraid that this new category will act as a consolation prize for strong ensemble films that will miss out on other major awards, I think the Academy has a great opportunity here to truly honor the hard and incredibly important work Casting Directors do. 

10. Best Animated Feature:

Prediction: K-POP DEMON HUNTERS

A lot of great animated films missed out on the Oscar nomination this year. Unfortunately, I don’t think it would’ve mattered if we saw something like Chainsaw Man: The Reze Arc get nominated, because K-POP Demon Hunters is unstoppable. After its PGA win a few days ago, it would take an insane move by the academy to have any other film winning. The only other competition I could possibly see is Zootopia 2, having just won at the BAFTAs. But I think even with K-POP Demon Hunters missing the BAFTA, it is still a near guaranteed lock for the Oscar. 

11. Cinematography:

Prediction: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

I feel like a broken record at this point, but One Battle After Another feels like a pretty safe pick for this category. I can see Train Dreams taking the upset here, which would be a really fun pick, seeing as that movie is absolutely stunning. The BAFTA cinematography award tends to align itself much more with what will win at the Oscars than the Critics Choice. For that reason, I’m going with One Battle After Another.

12. Original Song:

Prediction: GOLDEN - K-POP DEMON HUNTERS

What else is there to say about Golden? This song has been absolutely everywhere, snagging basically every precursor award and taking over the top charts. It is incredibly difficult to imagine this losing. Especially with the voting body leaning on the older side, I’m sure their kids and grandkids have been playing this nonstop. I think the Academy could do something very cool and different from the other awards shows this year and give the award to I Lied to You from Sinners, but I am doubtful. 

13. Original Score:

Prediction: SINNERS

I think it’s safe to say that Ludwig Göransson is an all-time great, and Sinners is further proof of that. This will be his third Oscar and a very well-deserved one at that. I do love Max Richter’s work in Hamnet and Johnny Greenwood’s work in One Battle After Another, but it is hard to compete with the momentum Göransson has, and historically Richter and Greenwood have not seen as much love as Göransson from the Academy. This one is an easy win for Sinners. 

14. Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling:

Prediction: FRANKENSTEIN

The Academy tends to pick one movie to throw most, if not all, of their technical awards at each year. This year, I think it is safe to say Frankenstein will be taking home Production and Costume design as well as Makeup and Hairstyling. Outside of some phenomenal practical work on the production design and absolutely beautiful costumes and makeup, Frankenstein is just a strong package for these categories. A period setting with heavy hitter nominations such as Picture, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay, it just makes sense. The only surprise I can possibly see is The Ugly Stepsister snagging a win in Makeup and Hairstying for the beautifully grotesque work by Anne Catherine Sauerberg and Thomas Foldberg. The Substance winning last year gives some basis for a possible win, but more than likely Frankenstein is taking all three of these Awards come the 15th. 

15. Best International Feature:

Prediction: SENTIMENTAL VALUE

Best International Feature has to be one of the most stacked categories at this year's Oscars. I do think, unfortunately, that the nomination is the win for a lot of these movies. I think this race comes down to the two films nominated for both International Feature and Best Picture, Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent. Had Wagner Moura or The Secret Agent picked up more steam, I would say that it was a tighter race, but with Sentimental Value having 9 Academy Award nominations and the BAFTA foreign language award win, I’m placing my bets on Sentimental Value.